Assessing The Field

It's been quite a ride thus far, and we're only through two states.  Here is a recap of the Iowa Caucus, and New Hampshire Primary, as well as a look ahead to the South Carolina Primary.



Iowa was a roller coaster ride that ended in what was essentially a Miracle on Ice moment.  In the months leading up to the Iowa Caucus, there had been a plethora of leaders in polls, with only one constant: Mitt Romney was at right about 23%.  Michele Bachmann took the early lead after she won the Iowa Straw Poll in late August.  She then fell due to the rise of Rick Perry.  Perry's support dropped after this:

Hermain Cain took the support from Rick Perry, thanks to some fantastic rhetoric, and a plan that appealed to everyone that didn't have a high school degree:

Newt Gingrich took the lead after Cain fell off and eventually ended his campaign due to a couple mental slips and allegations of sexual harassment.  Newt's gain was short-lived however, as Mitt Romney crushed him with negative adds, and Newt fell back down again.  Just a couple days prior to the Caucus, Rick Santorum caught fire, and applied a ton of pressure to Romney, falling just eight votes short.  Ron Paul finished in third, Newt fourth, Perry fifth, and Bachmann sixth.  Due to the disappointing finish, Bachmann decided to end her campaign.  Thanks to the surprise finish for Santorum, he was deemed "The Winner" of the Caucus, simply because he exceeded expectations by such a great margin.  He wound up raising one million dollars just the next day.

The finish by Santorum gave him a lot of momentum going into New Hampshire last week, just one week following Iowa.  Romney was the major favorite from start to finish.  Other than newcomer Jon Huntsman, all of the candidates were campaigning hard in Iowa, and New Hampshire was pushed to the back burner.  Santorum was looking to capitalize on his momentum, but his target audience, the socially conservatives, are not as vast a percentage of the New Hampshire population as they are in Iowa.  Santorum struggled, barely holding off Gingrich for fourth place.  Romney won in a landslide, while Ron Paul and Hunstman finished farther behind, respectively.  Perry didn't even campaign in New Hampshire, skipping the state entirely and focusing his time in South Carolina.

So, after the first two states, Mitt Romney holds a resounding lead over his competition, and is currently holding about a 4 point lead over Newt Gingrich in South Carolina.  Usually a strong conservative state, South Carolina has never failed to produce the Republican nominee.  Tensions will rise as it's sure to get rather nasty between the candidates in the coming weeks, each attempting to gain votes in the conservative south.  It will undoubtedly continue to be an interesting race.