South Carolina: the whirlwind that was

10 days ago today, Mitt Romney won the state of New Hampshire on a wave of momentum that carried him from a tight-second place finish in Iowa (originally declared the winner, after re-voting it turned out Rick Santorum won). He seemed to be in complete control of the Republican race, and I all but declared him the winner right then and there.

The race turned to South Carolina. Romney strolled in on that wave of momentum, with a lead in straw polls on Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Santorum. But then the game changed — and quickly.





First, Rick Perry dropped out of the race. He threw his support to Newt Gingrich, calling him a “visionary” and someone that can “lead the republican party back to prominence.” His supporters, for the most part, began supporting New Gingrich.

Second, there were a few debates that occurred, and in the first Gingrich came out as the clear winner. The second debate, the proctor opened with a question about Gingrich’s estranged life. Gingrich stopped, thought for a moment, and the proctor asked if he wanted to answer the question. Gingrich stared the proctor in the eye and said “I don’t want to, but I will.” He then went on to once again dominate the debate, coming across as a strong leader and someone who even the biggest Romney supporters had to applaud.

Finally, in the past few days, straw polls began showing Gingrich ahead of Romney. By the time polls opened today, Gingrich held a comfortable lead, approximately 40% in favor of Newt and 26% in favor of Romney.

And now, here we sit, with 3 major networks declaring him the official winner. Gingrich has apparently pulled off the win.

I don’t need to explain the importance of South Carolina — the winner of SC has won the nomination since 1980. Is this prophetic? We’ll see.

How did this happen?

For starters, Perry’s folding greatly helped Gingrich. It is estimated that 36% of Perry’s supporters switched to Gingrich, and only 20% switched to Romney. That was certainly a boost.

Another reason are the debates. Gingrich made himself seem like a much stronger candidate simply by being a great debater. Barack Obama’s incredible public speaking skills definitely helped him win both the nomination, and then the presidency.

So how does this change the shape of the election? I think it does in a few ways.

First of all, Romney is no longer a shoo-in. Before South Carolina, it was tough to imagine any candidate making a strong push against him. His success in the preceding states was absolutely unmatched, and the prime contestant in his previous states was not Gingrich but Santorum, who fell off the table in NH and SC.

Second of all, I think Gingrich’s success here all but ends Santorum’s candidacy. Gingrich called for Santorum to drop out, so Gingrich can make him his VP and end the continuing struggle between Gingrich and Santorum that divides the far right in the primary. My guess is that Santorum dropping out will greatly increase Gingrich’s chance of winning, and the longer he continues to run, Gingrich will lose ground.

Who will win? Tough to say. My vote is still for Mr. Romney, but New Gingrich has certainly made this a tougher race. Florida is in a few days, we’ll see what happens there!