Friday, January 20, 2012

Why I Don't Want to Support Mitt Romney

Despite being registered as such, I don't like to refer to myself as a Republican, I'm much more representative of a Conservative.  Hence the title, I'm not the biggest of fans of Republican candidate Mitt Romney.  Since the field is down to just four candidates now, as opposed to seven just a couple weeks ago, the anti-Romney vote (The majority of true Conservatives) is now being
split between just two people, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.  Romney appeals to the more moderate voters, and the fact that his poll numbers have hovered around 20-25% during the majority of the campaign shows that Conservatives are tentative to give him a shot, electing instead to exhaust all of the other possibilities.  Yesterday, one time (Although very brief) frontrunner Rick Perry dropped out of the race.  With him being a strong Conservative, his votes will most likely go in the direction of Newt Gingrich who has been surging after his undeniably impressive debate performances this week, or Rick Santorum, as they share similar values.  However, as long as Gingrich and Santorum are both fighting for that demographic, and Ron Paul remains in his own little world, Romney will remain the frontrunner.  This alone is why Rick Santorum, my favorite candidate, needs to drop out of the race.


Now, I'm sure a lot of people won't understand this.  They'll ask, "Why would this idiot want the candidate he wants to run this country to drop out?  He can't really hate Mitt Romney this much, can he?  Why is Romney so bad?"  And to these people I will say first and foremost I am only an idiot about certain things and this is not one of them.  Secondly, with the help of the tools I'm gaining in my pursuit of a Math Degree, I have devised a formula that shows that if Santorum drops out, Newt will win.  I know, it's abstract, and hard to follow, but here goes:

Let S = Santorum's votes, R = Romney's votes, P = Paul's votes, and G = Gingrich's votes
Total Republican Votes = R + P + S + G


That's fair to say, they are the only ones receiving any substantial amount of votes.

Conservative Votes = S + G
Moderate Votes = R
Insert Synonym for "Lunatic" Votes = P
Total Republican Votes = Conservative Votes + Moderate Votes + Other Votes

It's fair to say that Santorum and Gingrich are splitting the Conservative votes, Romney has the Moderates, and Paul has a number of different adjectives for his supporters.  Combined, these three types of voters make up the vast majority of Republican Votes.

Now, let's add in the percentage for each of the candidates in the newest national polls, and then in the South Carolina polls as their primary is tomorrow.

Romney Votes = 31.6 Nationally, 31.5 SC
Gingrich Votes = 19.4 Nationally, 32.5 SC
Paul Votes = 14.4 Nationally, 14.0 SC
Santorum Votes = 14.2 Nationally, 11.8 SC

As of now, Gingrich is leading in the polls in South Carolina, but it's too close to call.  Take a look at how the Conservative vote is divided nationally:

Conservative Votes = S + G
Conservative Votes = 14.2 + 19.4
Conservative Votes = 33.6

33.6% of the people in this great country are associating themselves with a Conservative candidate, and it's reasonable to conclude that if Santorum were to drop out, the vast majority of his votes would go to Gingrich, leaving that 33.6% constant, and pushing Gingrich to surpass Mitt Romney.

Now, to the question as to why I hate Mitt Romney, my answer is simple: I don't.  I don't hate Mitt Romney, I just don't love him.  I love Santorum's stance on family values and building from the bottom up.  The fact that the family unit is becoming such a problem in this country, I truly believe that if that is fixed, a lot of the social problems such as a lack of ambition, drive, or motivation would be eliminated (Occupiers, I'm looking at you).  I love Gingrich's debating skills, he's fantastic to listen to, and despite his immense amount of baggage that is completely fair game, he comes across more genuine than Romney.  Gingrich is a true Conservative.  As for Romney, there's just something missing.  He's not a great debater.


He doesn't seem particularly candid, in fact I think I trust Newt more than Romney and Newt's had three wives, two of which he's cheated on.

There's just something missing with Romney.  I don't get excited about him, and being my first election in which I can vote, I want to vote for someone who I actually want to vote for.  I don't want to have to settle for someone who comes across as a spineless snake.  Up against Obama, Mitt Romney will get my vote every day of the week, but I'm not going to be excited to go out and vote.  That's the difference.  It's nothing tangible, just a feeling I get, and clearly I'm not the only one who feels the same way, otherwise Romney wouldn't be in this predicament.

On a side note, and a very important note about the General Election, people like me need to stop disrespecting Ron Paul and his supporters.  Firstly, if Ron Paul decides to run as a third party after he doesn't receive the nomination, you can say hello to four more years of Obama.  Second, whoever the Republican nominee is, they're going to need the votes from his supporters if they want to win the presidency.  Obama supporters should be lining up at Ron Paul's house, begging him to run in the General Election.  The Republican candidate would be done if that were to happen.

2 comments:

  1. Well rebutted sir. Although, you are the only person whose opinion I already knew. The only flaw in the formula is that you assume every single Santorum supporter would vote Gingrich. While for the most part, that's true, some of them will stray to Paul and even some to Romney. It's not guarantee that Gingrich would win with Santorum out, but it would definitely help.

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  2. "and it's reasonable to conclude that if Santorum were to drop out, the vast majority of his votes would go to Gingrich"

    That quote should clear things up. Although either way it's no guarantee Gingrich wins, just an immense help.

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